louisville ky: fxus63 klmk 080854

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fxus63 klmk 080854
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
354 am est mon feb 8 2010
.short term (today - tuesday)...
our next winter storm is shaping up over the plains. after much
debate and coordination...will go with a winter weather advisory for
much of our area including the area that was under a winter storm
watch. the area that was under a winter storm watch (southern
indiana/north central ky) will likely see the highest snow amounts
between 3-4 inches with possibly even some 5 inch amounts over
southern indiana. this area will be under a high end advisory and
may need to be upgraded to a warning later today depending on how
the qpf sets up as the storm draws near. models (gfs/sref
preferred) are generally around 0.35-0.4 inch qpf amounts at this
time...right on the border between warning/advisory but maybe on the
advisory side as of now. areas down by bowling green will be added
to the advisory for 1-3 inches of snow. the bluegrass still looks
good for advisory level 2-4 inches of snow.
the majority of the accumulating snow will fall between 0z tues-18z
tues. rain will begin to mix in over the southern 2/3 of the
forecast area after 12z tues. the dry slot will start working into
the area around 15-18z cutting off significant precip. as the front
moves through tuesday afternoon between 18z-0z...temps will fall
rapidly. as previously mentioned...this may cause flash freeze and
hazardous travel conditions for the evening commute on tuesday.
stay tuned to noaa weather radio and weather.gov/lmk for future
storm updates.
.long term (tuesday night - sunday)...
we are focused on the mon night-tue period...will look at tue night
at this time and leave wed thru sun unchanged.
upper level low will move across the ohio valley tue night while sfc
low meanders to our n/ne. snow showers will be developing in
cyclonic flow behind lows with the most numerous over srn indiana
and the bluegrass region of ky. post frontal w/nw winds shud be
quite strong...will bump them up a category from our current fcst
resulting in wind chills dropping to the single digits above zero
early wed mrng.
prev disc for the wed-sun period follows:
wednesday-sunday...
a mainly dry but seasonably cold period will be in store during
this period.
cold air will advect into the lower ohio valley wednesday as a
deep upper low tracks east into the mid atlantic states. this will
keep skies cloudy with a chance of light snow... especially across
the northeast. temperatures will not rise much from morning lows
with readings holding below the freezing mark.
cold high pressure will build into the region thursday and friday.
the next weather system over the weekend looks to stay south of
central kentucky as low pressure moves through the northern gulf of
mexico.
temperatures thursday through sunday will be some 10 degrees below
normal for early february.

.aviation (06z taf issuance)...
sfc high pressure over the region will continue to float east
tonight. the main taf concerns over the next 6-10 hrs will be cigs
at lex and light br at all taf sites. lex had an mvfr cig right
above 2 kft at 530z this morning and expect that to continue for the
next few hours although the back edge to the stratus is getting
close to the terminal. by around 8-9z the low cig at lex should sct
out.
all taf sites will have light winds...subsidence overhead...and some
ll moisture. not real optimistic with fog during the early morning
hours because of the dry e sfc winds. but...will keep a brief 6sm
br at all taf sites this morning.
by mid morning...flight conditions should go vfr at all taf sites
and remain that way through the afternoon hours. the only exception
might be at lex as 0z eta soundings indicate a brief mvfr cig during
the late afternoon.
the next major weather system will approach the area tonight
spreading snow or a mix of rain/snow over the taf sites after 0z.

.lmk watches/warnings/advisories...
ky...winter weather advisory from 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening to
1 pm est /noon cst/ tuesday for kyz023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>065-070>074.
in...winter weather advisory from 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening to
1 pm est /noon cst/ tuesday for inz076>079-083-084-089>092.


short term........aml
long term.........dk/11
aviation..........aml

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